Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
