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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|