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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.