UK Diplomats Cautioned Against Military Action to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released papers reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to remove the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we assess that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.