Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled talks on the near four-year conflict in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

The president often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in August yielded no concrete results.

Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.

The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.

So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Gina Sherman
Gina Sherman

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